Morning Report: Some predictions for 2020

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3242 -1.25
Oil (WTI) 62.87 -0.74
10 year government bond yield 1.80%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.88%

 

Stocks are flattish this morning as Iranian tensions ease. Bonds and MBS are flat as well.

 

The trade deficit fell to a 3 year low as imports fell and exports rose. The Trump Administration has said that a Phase 1 deal with China will be signed at the White House on January 15. Separately, the Senate is expected to vote on the new USMCA (the replacement for NAFTA) this month.

 

The Bernank is suggesting that the Fed not rule out the use of negative interest rates. “The Fed should also consider maintaining constructive ambiguity about the future use of negative short-term rates, both because situations could arise in which negative short-term rates would provide useful policy space; and because entirely ruling out negative short rates, by creating an effective floor for long-term rates as well, could limit the Fed’s future ability to reduce longer-term rates by QE or other means.” He also supported the Fed’s current “makeup” policy where the Fed will allow inflation to run above its intended target for an extended period to “make up” for the past decade where it had run below its target.

 

Interesting new model for home ownership. Fleq is a Los Angeles based startup that buys homes on behalf of a buyer and rents it back them while offering them the chance to buy it from Fleq bit by bit. It is different than the “rent-to-own” model. The buyer (really a tenant) will pay market rent, which is then reduced as the tenant buys more of the property. If the tenant has 5% equity, they 5% of all taxes and maintenance costs. They also get to treat the property as if they own it, meaning they can paint it how they want, etc. I guess it makes sense for someone who falls in love with a house but can’t get a mortgage at the moment. It allows them to move into the home without having to get a mortgage and lets them repair their credit / income / whatever and then go the traditional mortgage route. Don’t know how much interest there will be in this, but it is a novel concept.

 

Some predictions for the 2020 housing market. “In 2020, more home-building activity and consequent growth in supply should tame down home price gains,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. “That’s a healthy development for potential home buyers. Southern cities should once again do better than most other markets.”. Another: “Real estate fundamentals remain entangled in a lattice of continuing demand, tight supply and disciplined financial underwriting,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com. “Accordingly, 2020 will prove to be the most challenging year for buyers, not because of what they can afford but rather what they can find.” Punch line: rates will stay around 3.8%, and existing home sales will fall as fewer properties will be available for sale. Of course, that assumes builders will remain cautious. The NAHB expects single family starts to grow 4% to 920,000, which is still below the number we need to keep up with population and obsolescence. The chart below shows population-adjusted starts by decade:

 

starts by population

 

 

Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s