Morning Report: The Atlanta Fed sees 10.5% GDP growth in Q2

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures4,155-13.8
Oil (WTI)65.330.07
10 year government bond yield 1.65%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.20%

Stocks are lower this morning as COVID cases increase in Asia. Bonds and MBS are down small.

The upcoming week won’t have much in the way of market-moving data, however we will get housing info with housing starts and existing home sales. We will also have a lot of Fed-speak and will get the minutes from the April FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Manufacturing activity was flat in New York State, according to the NY Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Survey. New Orders and shipments improved strongly, although we did see shipment times expand. Prices are also increasing as raw materials get more expensive.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now indicator is forecasting 10.5% GDP for the second quarter.

Three quarters of home offers were competitive situation, according to Redfin. The hottest markets are Spokane, San Diego, Boise, Salt Lake City, and Phoenix. We are seeing all-cash offers win out over offers with a financing contingency. “The homes for sale today are high-quality, desirable homes—a dynamic that’s fueling more competition. This is a contrast from the winter, when most properties coming on the market were bottom-of-the-barrel homes. The difference is that today’s sellers are folks who want to sell, whereas many sellers back in the winter had to sell and didn’t have time to do any upgrades.”

Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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