Morning Report: Big miss in payrolls

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,403-11.2
Oil (WTI)69.24-1.25
10 year government bond yield 1.14%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 2.96%

Stocks are lower this morning on COVID fears. Bonds and MBS are up small.

The 10-year continues to drop in yield, however this is a global phenomenon. The German Bund is back below negative 50 basis points, and the Japanese Government Bond is back at 0%.

I know that with the current central bank intervention in the bond markets that interest rates don’t have the signal to noise ratio they usually have, but it certainly doesn’t appear that the US economy is set for a huge upswing in the second half of the year.

The economy added 330,000 jobs in July, according to the ADP Employment Report. The Street was looking for 700k jobs, so this is a sizeable miss. The gains were primarily in leisure / hospitality and education / health. The June number was revised downward as well.

“The labor market recovery continues to exhibit uneven progress, but progress nonetheless. July payroll data reports a marked slowdown from the second quarter pace in jobs growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “For the fifth straight month the leisure and hospitality sector is the fastest growing industry, though gains have softened. The slowdown in the recovery has also impacted companies of all sizes. Bottlenecks in hiring continue to hold back stronger gains, particularly in light of new COVID-19 concerns tied to viral variants. These barriers should ebb in coming months, with stronger monthly gains ahead as a result.”

The Street is looking for 900,000 payrolls in Friday’s jobs report so there seems to be a sizeable disconnect between expectations and reality here.

Mortgage applications fell 1.7% last week as purchases and refis fell by basically the same amount. This is despite a 4 basis point drop in the mortgage rate. “Interest rates drifted lower globally last week, as markets assessed the latest concerns regarding the delta variant. 30-year mortgage rates dropped below 3 percent in our survey for the first time since this February, presenting an opportunity for many homeowners who have not yet refinanced to lower their rate and their payments. Refinance application volume slightly decreased, following an 11 percent jump last week,” said MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni.

So far, it doesn’t appear that the adverse market fee is having much of an impact on refi volume, does it?

Figure, a blockchain fintech is merging with Homebridge. Figure is led by Mike Cagney, who founded SoFi. “Probably the most significant issue was we had this grand thesis that we could save 90 basis points of expense to originate securitized loans on a blockchain” Cagney told HousingWire in an interview in May.

Fannie Mae just reported earnings. Here are the prepared remarks. Fannie sees purchase volume reaching $1.8 trillion this year, and they expect refi volume to decrease as interest rates rise. They also see a 14.8% rise in house prices this year.


Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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