Vital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 4,362 | 13.2 |
| Oil (WTI) | 73.64 | 0.29 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 1.54% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 3.21% |
Stocks are higher this morning as we round out the third quarter. Bonds and MBS are down.
The government looks like it will do a temporary move to avoid a shutdown, however the potential for a shutdown remains until the debt ceiling is raised. Generally speaking these sorts of things are nothing more than political theater. That said, we have had temporary shutdowns in the past and it was hard to get 4506-Ts out of the IRS. Plan accordingly.
Pending Home Sales rose 8.1% in August, according to NAR. “Rising inventory and moderating price conditions are bringing buyers back to the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Affordability, however, remains challenging as home price gains are roughly three times wage growth. The more moderately priced regions of the South and Midwest are experiencing stronger signing of contracts to buy, which is not surprising,” Yun continued. “This can be attributed to some employees who have the flexibility to work from anywhere, as they choose to reside in more affordable places.”
I suspect the theme of the real estate market going forward will be the flow of people to areas that have become too cheap to ignore.
Initial Jobless Claims rose to 361,000 last week. The continuing high unemployment claims remain a mystery given the plethora of job openings out there.
The final revision to second quarter GDP was inched up to 6.7%, as consumption rose a hair. Estimates for third quarter GDP have been decreasing. The current Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate is sitting at 3.2%. The much-ballyhooed 2H acceleration doesn’t seem to be playing out.
Jerome Powell addressed the inflation situation yesterday. “It’s also frustrating to see the bottlenecks and supply chain problems not getting better — in fact at the margins apparently getting a little bit worse,” he added. “We see that continuing into next year probably, and holding up inflation longer than we had thought.”
The Daily Tearsheet 