Morning Report: Home sales fall 10% compared to a year ago

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures4,690-10.2
Oil (WTI)76.35-2.63
10 year government bond yield 1.52%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.28%

Stocks are lower as parts of Europe re-enter lockdown mode. Bonds and MBS are up.

Home sales were down 6.2% MOM and 10.2% YOY, according to data from Re/Max. “We’re seeing the effects of a long, sustained run-up in prices and month-over-month home sales and the market may be moving past the days of immediate sales, multiple offers and bidding wars on virtually every property,” said Nick Bailey, president of RE/MAX, LLC. “That’s okay — the October dip in sales, especially after such a busy September, is a step toward a more balanced market and was somewhat overdue.”

Redfin predicts that we will have a more balanced housing market in 2022 as listings increase. The company expects mortgage rates to rise to 3.6%, and for new listings to hit a 10-year high. Rents are expected to increase 7% as well.

Separately, Redfin’s Home Demand Index hit an all-time high. “The economy is recovering strongly and mortgage rates are still near all-time lows. Those two forces combined have caused homebuying demand to hit a record high,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “People who tried to buy a home in the spring are coming back for round two, only to find the market is still quite difficult because of a lack of homes for sale. A lot of homebuyers wish they had bought last year, now that it’s not just homes that are more expensive, but also gas, groceries and dining out. Many buyers today are limited to move-in ready homes because it is so difficult and expensive to purchase new appliances or find contractors to make improvements.”

Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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