Morning Report: Strong Jobs Report

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,106-40.25
Oil (WTI)109.811.69
10 year government bond yield 3.10%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.54%

Stocks are lower as markets continue their post-Fed sell-off. Bonds and MBS are down.

The economy added 428,000 jobs in April, which was a touch above the 400,000 consensus estimate. The gains were widespread, with leisure / hospitality adding 78,000 and manufacturing adding 55,000. Despite the recent gains in payrolls, we are still about 1.2 million jobs below pre-pandemic levels.

The unemployment rate was flat at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings increased 5.5% year-over-year. The labor force participation rate declined to 62.2% and the employment-population ratio declined to 60%.

Overall, this is a strong jobs report and it gives the Fed leeway to keep increasing interest rates. Historically, a 3.6% unemployment rate is exceptionally low, so they could let it increase modestly and still be within the boundaries of “full employment.”

Delinquencies declined to 4.11% in the first quarter, according to the MBA. This was down from 4.65% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 6.38% a year ago. FHA delinquencies fell substantially. Most of the decrease was in the 90+ day bucket where the loans were either cured or entered post-forbearance workout plans.


Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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