Morning Report: Loan demand falls while standards tighten

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,109 9.50
Oil (WTI)78.95-0.78
10 year government bond yield 3.75%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 6.33%

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

The week ahead will have some important data on housing and inflation, with the Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. We will also get housing starts and builder sentiment. Other important data points are retail sales, small business optimism and leading economic indicators.

Mr. Cooper reported fourth quarter numbers on Friday. Funded volume was $3.2 billion, a decrease of 39% QOQ and 82% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Servicing income kept the lights on, and Mr. Cooper is valuing its MSR portfolio more conservatively (at 5.1x) than many of the mortgage REITs which seem to have values from 5.5x – 6.1x.

Loan demand is falling, while lending standards are getting tighter, according to the Fed. This is typical for an economy that is poised to enter a recession. Loan demand for residential real estate was weak, and standards tightened for HELOCs, credit cards, auto loans and other consumer debt.

The Fed also observed the same phenomenon for commercial and industrial loans, as well as commercial real estate.

The Atlanta Fed GDP Now Index sees 2.1% GDP growth in Q1, while the Street sees it coming in mildly negative.

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Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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