Vital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 2751.25 | 6.5 |
| Eurostoxx index | 364.16 | 1.38 |
| Oil (WTI) | 53.66 | 0.58 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 2.69% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 4.43% |
Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.
It looks like a shutdown may be avoided, as Congress has come up with a plan to allocate some funds to a smaller, cheaper border wall than Trump was looking for. The President hasn’t committed to signing anything yet, but it looks like he will go along.
The labor market continues to be on fire, as the number of job openings hit 7.3 million, a series record. The number of job openings exceeds the number of unemployed by over 1 million. Construction led the increase with a jump of 88,000, some of which is probably seasonal. The quits rate was unchanged at 2.3%, although it increased for the private sector while decreasing for government. The quits rate is a leading indicator for wage growth.
Mortgage Applications fell 3.7% last week as purchases fell 6% and refis fell .01%.
Ellie Mae is being taken private in a $3.7 billion transaction. Private Equity firm Thomas Bravo will pay $99 a share for the stock, and has allowed a 35 day “go-shop” provision, which permits Ellie Mae to seek higher bids.
Small business optimism is returning to normal levels after spiking to all time highs in 2017 and 2018 according to the National Federation of Independent Businesses. Uncertainty in Washington, exacerbated by the lengthy government shutdown is making small business worried about the future. That said, they continue to hire, though they are more cautious about expansion plans.
The Daily Tearsheet 