Morning Report: Coronavirus kills 10 million jobs

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2452 4.4
Oil (WTI) 22.16 1.89
10 year government bond yield 0.59%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.54%

 

Stocks are flattish after a record 6.6 million people file for unemployment. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

So, with last week’s revised filing of 3.3 million, a total of 10 million people have lost their jobs over the Coronavirus. Compared to the roughly 200k cases in the US, that works out to be 50 jobs lost per case. That puts the cost of social distancing in perspective.

 

Construction spending fell 1.3% MOM and rose 6% YOY. These are February numbers, so they were still largely unaffected by the COVID-19 crisis.

 

Pretty much everyone has gone to 680 minimum FICOs on FHA loans now. Secondary bulk buyers are pulling back their bids for all loans as well. Everybody is padding margins to take into account the various risks in the financial system.

 

Good piece on mortgage forbearance and what needs to be done. Bottom line, you can’t just stop paying your mortgage and assume everything is fine. Call your servicer before you start missing payments. FHFA Director Mark Calabria estimates that 700,000 mortgage will need forbearance. Given that 10 million people lost their jobs in the past two weeks, that number is probably way too low.

 

New York State has loosened restrictions on in-person showings, appraisals and inspections.

 

Rent was due yesterday for the nation’s renters. Washington is looking for a way to get some relief to them. New York State is considering allowing the security deposit to take the place of rent. I know that Fannie and Fred are allowing forbearance for multifam investors, but I have not seen anything for 2-4 units specifically. The multifam relief is conditional on a freeze of evictions.

 

 

Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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