Morning Report: Existing home sales flat YOY

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2779 40.1
Oil (WTI) 14.11 2.59
10 year government bond yield 0.60%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.43%

 

Stocks are higher this morning after the Senate passed a stimulus bill to increase aid to small business, and oil rallies. Bonds and MBS are down.

 

Existing home sales fell 8.5% month over month in March, but are still up modestly on a YOY basis. “Unfortunately, we knew home sales would wane in March due to the coronavirus outbreak,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “More temporary interruptions to home sales should be expected in the next couple of months, though home prices will still likely rise.” Pricing was strong, with the median home price up 8% YOY. Inventory is still tight, down 10% YOY and is about 3.4 months worth. First time homebuyers increased to 34% of all buyers and investors fell to 13%.

 

Meanwhile, some are fretting about another housing crash. When demand outstrips supply as much as it does right now, you generally don’t see crashes. Residential real estate bubbles like we saw from 2004-2006 are rare (like once or twice a century). The conditions required for one simply aren’t in place right now.

 

Mortgage applications fell 0.3% last week as purchases rose 2% and refis fell 1%. Meanwhile, house prices rose 0.7% MOM in February and were up 5.7% YOY, according to the FHFA House Price Index.

 

JP Morgan is preparing to bring back workers in phases, according to an internal memo. Meanwhile, New York State will re-open in phases, based on how many COVID-19 cases are out there.

Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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