Morning Report: Further stimulus probably not forthcoming

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2800 -20.1
Oil (WTI) 19.17 -0.79
10 year government bond yield 0.61%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.43%

 

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down small.

 

The big economic event this week will be the jobs report on Friday. The street is looking for a loss of 21.3 million jobs and a 16% unemployment rate.

 

Meanwhile about half the states are beginning to open. Note that most of the world has begun to relax restrictions as well. New York States has closed schools for the year, and will probably be the last place to emerge from the bunker.

 

The running joke is that the use of the word “unprecedented” is unprecedented. The dire predictions of the virus never panned out (no millions of deaths). I expect the predictions of lasting economic implications (Great Depression II!!!!) of this are probably going to be just as wrong.

 

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is cautious on the need for more Coronavirus aid. As states re-open it may turn out that more aid is not needed. Note that lawsuit relief and vote-by-mail will be two partisan issues that both sides will push. The door might be closed for further relief.

 

Fannie and Freddie are preparing to cover advances after 4 months, according to the FHFA. “To provide servicers with stability and clarity regarding their payment obligations and to align our servicer advance requirement with Freddie Mac, FHFA’s instructions require that, effective August 2020, we cease requiring servicers to advance missed scheduled principal and interest payments after four months of missed borrower payments on a loan,” Fannie Mae said in its 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Many consumers believe that the missed payments will just get tacked on to the end of the mortgage. Given Fannie’s cash position and equity that might not be possible without further government support. That will drive the whole request for balloon payments at the end of forbearance. I suspect the government is going to have to make some tough decisions in August. Especially if forbearance doubles.

 

HELOCs are disappearing quickly. Wells and Chase have already suspended these products, and other lenders will probably follow. Homeowners who are looking for liquidity should think about getting one while the getting is good.

 

 

Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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