Morning Report: New Home Sales encouraging

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3008 55.1
Oil (WTI) 34.34 1.19
10 year government bond yield 0.7%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.28%

 

Stocks are higher this morning on optimism about the economy re-opening. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

The upcoming week is somewhat data-light. The big numbers will be the second revision to GDP and construction spending.

 

Home prices rose 1.7% in the first quarter and were up 5.7% on a YOY basis, according to the FHFA House Price Index.  That said, the report noted that the data in the report probably doesn’t take into account the effects of COVID. The Mountain states led the charge, with Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming posting double-digit gains.

Home price appreciation by state

The Case-Shiller index reported a 4.4% annual gain. The difference between the FHFA and Case-Shiller indices? FHFA is limited to transactions with a conforming mortgage, while Case-Shiller includes all sales.

 

New Home Sales came in at 623,000 which was up from March, but down 6.7% on a YOY basis. Since April was the worst of the crisis, this is an encouraging number. Note that these are estimates with wide confidence intervals. So there is a chance these could get revised lower. I listened to pretty much every homebuilder earnings call and pretty much every one said that the second half of April was unexpectedly strong.

 

I went to a restaurant in Connecticut last night. Outdoor seating, long line out the door to get a table. Sample size of 1, but it looks like people are antsy to get out of the house and put COVID behind them. Barring any sort of second wave of infections, I think the economy rebound by the 4th of July and will have shaken off most of the economic damage by Labor Day.

Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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