Morning Report: Fed week

Vital Statistics:


Last Change
S&P futures 3208 24.1
Oil (WTI) 38.84 0.39
10 year government bond yield 0.91%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.32%


Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.


The FOMC will meet this week, although no changes in interest rates are expected. They may give some sort of update on the various sundry financial assets they will buy, but that is about it.


The unemployment rate was probably understated in Friday’s jobs report. Apparently there was a misclassification error for people who were employed but absent from work. They should have been classified as “unemployed” but were not, which means the unemployment rate was higher than advertised. Note this doesn’t affect the payroll number, which comes from the establishment survey.


The Fed is launching its Main Street lending program, but it looks like the high minimum amount of $500k is putting some borrowers off.  It has generated some political heat as a bailout for oil and gas industries. “It is far and away the biggest challenge of any of the 11 facilities that we’ve set up,” Fed chair Jerome Powell said last month during a Princeton University webcast in which he also said the central bank is open to adjusting the program.


The FHA gave some more guidance on forbearance. Loans in forbearance are generally ineligible for FHA insurance, but the government is permitting closed loans to be insured provided the lender agrees to indemnify FHA for 20% of the loan amount if the loan goes into foreclosure. “FHA has continually been at the forefront of providing assistance and assurance for borrowers, lenders, and the mortgage market since the coronavirus pandemic began,” said Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson in a statement, adding the policy change “will give borrowers, lenders, and the market peace of mind as we continue our road to economic recovery in the United States.”


Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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