Morning Report: The service sector rebounded strongly in June

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are lower this morning on overseas weakness. Bonds and MBS are up.

The services economy rebounded in June, according to the ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey. Production-related indicators are leading employment indicators. That said, many of the comments in the survey pointed to higher-then-expected demand and shortages. “Sales have picked up tremendously. Sporadic supply issues. Biggest concern for us is lumber shortages.” (Construction). Overall, the headline number for the index was 57, much higher than the 50 that was expected and is consistent with an economy that is growing quickly. Further evidence that the recession probably ended in early May some time.

CoreLogic is predicting that home prices will fall at an annual rate of 6.6% by May of 2021.

Strong home purchase demand in the first quarter of 2020, coupled with tightening supply, has helped prop up home prices through the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. However, the anticipated impacts of the recession are beginning to appear across the housing market. Despite new contract signings rising year over year in May, home price growth is expected to stall in June and remain that way throughout the summer. CoreLogic HPI Forecast predicts a month-over-month price decrease of 0.1% in June and a year-over-year decline of 6.6% by May 2021.

Unlike the Great Recession, the current economic downturn is not driven by the housing market, which continues to post gains in many parts of the country. While activity up until now suggests the housing market will eventually bounce back, the forecasted decline in home prices will largely be due to elevated unemployment rates. This prediction is exacerbated by the recent spike in COVID-19 cases across the country.

While this is certainly possible, the supply / demand imbalance is so stark right now, I suspect that anyone who decides to wait for lower prices will regret it. I could see weakness in the luxury end of the market, where there is more inventory. Certainly urban luxury apartments are going to experience a perfect storm of people fleeing the cities and a potential drop in foreign buyer interest due to the violence. A drop of 6.6% seems aggressive to me.

Zillow Offers resumes activity in 5 more markets. Zillow Offers is a program where the company will purchase a home directly from a buyer, which would allow the buyer to submit a non-contingent offer on their next home. Zillow would then make any necessary repairs, clean and stage the home for sale. I think Zillow charges around 7.5% to do this, which is probably about the cost of the realtor charges and any fix-up costs the seller would have to pay otherwise.

Interesting reaction to COVID-19: Potential buyers need a pre-approval letter to enter the house. “Having a pre-approval letter has long been a preferred requirement by agents when submitting an offer, but having a pre-approval letter before looking at homes given the COVID-19 environment is an absolute must,” says Cara Ameer, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker Vanguard Realty in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. “Sellers and listing agents are cautious about who is coming into their homes, and they want to ensure that only those that are truly qualified are coming through their doors.”

Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical View all posts by Brent Nyitray