Morning Report: Inflation is flat

Vital Statistics:


Last Change
S&P futures 3138 3.1
Oil (WTI) 39.84 0.21
10 year government bond yield 0.60%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.12%


Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.


Inflation at the wholesale level remains well below the Fed’s target. The Producer Price Index fell 0.2% MOM and fell 0.8% YOY. Ex food and energy, the index was flat. Suffice it to say, the Fed is deeply concerned about this, and this opens the window for further measures to support the economy.


The Trump Administration is looking at another stimulus bill, which would extend unemployment benefits and permit another round of direct payments to individuals. House Democrats want something more sweeping, so we’ll see what actually gets hammered out.


Landlords in Manhattan are being forced to slash rent as vacancies increase. The Escape From New York has put a total of 10,000 apartments on the market, which is an 85% increase from a year ago. The official vacancy rate is 3.7%, however in some buildings it is much higher.


Redfin announced that over half of all transactions were competitive in June. “Bidding wars continue to be fueled by historically low mortgage rates and fewer homes up for sale than almost any time in the last two decades,” said Redfin economist Taylor Marr. “It’s like a game of musical chairs where only the best bidders get a seat. Both renters and move-up buyers who have held onto their jobs are vying for the small number of single-family homes on the market as they realize they need more space for their families.”


Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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