Morning Report: Awaiting the Fed

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are flattish as we await the Fed decision at 2:00 pm. Bonds and MBS are up.

The FOMC decision is set for 2:00 pm. The markets will be looking for acknowledgement that the pause in inflationary progress in late 2024 was just a blip.

Consumer confidence fell in January, according to the Conference Board. “Consumer confidence has been moving sideways in a relatively stable, narrow range since 2022. January was no exception. The Index weakened for a second straight month, but still remained in that range, even if in the lower part,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “All five components of the Index deteriorated but consumers’ assessments of the present situation experienced the largest decline. Notably, views of current labor market conditions fell for the first time since September, while assessments of business conditions weakened for the second month in a row. Meanwhile, consumers were also less optimistic about future business conditions and, to a lesser extent, income. The return of pessimism about future employment prospects seen in December was confirmed in January.”

Inflation expectations over the next 12 months rose from 5.1% to 5.3%, which is something that will concern the Fed. Note also that respondents’ view of the labor market is deteriorating, with more people thinking jobs are hard to get and less people thinking jobs are plentiful.

Western Alliance Bank is excited to announce that its clients can now integrate their Western Alliance bank accounts with payment operations platform, Modern Treasury, to help them automate and scale their payments, reconciliation and reporting between all their systems. With Modern Treasury’s powerful REST API platform, bank clients can streamline their businesses’ financial operations, reduce errors and save time.

“I’m so proud to help Western Alliance Bank complete this important integration with Modern Treasury,” says Chris Martin, Director of Treasury Management Sales with Western Alliance Bank’s Specialized Mortgage Services Group. “As we continue to handle payments for large clients in our space, having these types of integrations is essential to helping our clients scale their business and reach their technology goals. Treasury teams move a lot of money, and the data behind these payments are equally as important to help our clients automate clerical functions. Modern Treasury can help solve complex ledgering databases, handle payments at scale, and do this while automating the reconciliation using their unique platform.”

The integrated payments platform is just one way Western Alliance Bank helps businesses maximize efficiency to seamlessly manage their finances. For a comprehensive overview of the products and services Western Alliance Bank offers to help you maximize your success in the evolving mortgage industry landscape, explore this article. Or reach out to the Western Alliance Bank team to learn more about how their Cash Management integrations can work with your technology platform to enhance your business’ growth and efficiency. Modern Treasury Corp is an independent third party and not affiliated with Western Alliance Bank. Western Alliance Bank assists its commercial clients that leverage Modern Treasury’s services. Western Alliance Bank, Member FDIC

Mortgage Applications fell 2% last week as purchases fell 0.4% and refis fell 6.8%. “Purchase activity decreased slightly, but applications for FHA purchase loans were a bright spot, increasing by 2 percent,” said Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the MBA. 

“New and existing-home sales ended 2024 on a strong note, and if mortgage rates continue to stabilize and for-sale inventory loosens, we expect a gradual pick up in purchase activity in the coming months.”

The Spring Selling Season, which unofficially starts around Super Bowl Sunday is nearly upon us.

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Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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