Vital Statistics:
Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.
There were 7.6 million job openings at the end of December, according to the BLS. This was a decrease of 560k compared to November and a drop of 1.3 million compared to last year. The decrease was mainly in professional / business services (-225k), health care / social assistance (-180k) and finance / insurance (-136k).
The quits rate was flat at 2.0%. A year ago, it was 2.2%. A falling quits rate is a signal of labor market deterioration.
Construction job openings were 217k, about a 50k drop from the month before. Construction openings have been on a steady decline and are back to pre-pandemic levels:
The private sector added 183,000 jobs in January, according to the ADP Employment Survey. “We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Consumer facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production.”
The Street was looking for a 153k increase, so the 183 number was better than expectations. Friday’s employment situation report sees about 140k in private payroll additions.
Mortgage applications rose 2.2% last week as rates fell. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, consistent with lower Treasury yields following the FOMC meeting and a volatile week for stock market. The 30-year fixed rate declined to its lowest level in six weeks at 6.97 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications responded to these lower rates and were up for the week overall, driven by a 12 percent increase in refinance applications, which had their strongest week since December 2024.”
Added Kan, “Purchase activity had a tougher week, with declines across all loan types. The average loan size for a purchase loan has increased since the start of the year and continued that trend last week with weaker government purchase activity, which reached $447,300, the highest level since October 2024.”
Are you a mortgage originator with a bookkeeper, but no financial analyst? Are you doing without an annual budget because you don’t have the time / resources to develop one? Are you considering an acquisition, and want an in-depth analysis of the potential synergies and impact on the bottom line? Perhaps you have some projects that need to be done, but you can’t justify a full-time hire.
I am a consultant who has extensive experience in capital markets, secondary marketing, FP&A, budgeting, and servicing. If you think you might have a need, let’s set up a discovery call.
Please reach out to brent@thedailytearsheet.com
The drop in job openings signals potential shifts in the economy, particularly in sectors like professional services, healthcare, and finance. With a decrease of 560k openings since November, it’s important to closely monitor trends in these fields and understand how they might affect workers and industry growth in the coming months.
Job openings falling by 560k at the end of December points to a shift in the labor market. The largest reductions in openings occurred in professional services, healthcare, and finance, raising questions about industry stability and potential job shortages. Monitoring this trend will be crucial for both job seekers and employers.