Vital Statistics:
Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.
The week ahead will be dominated by housing data and also the personal income / outlays number on Friday. The personal income data will include the PCE Price Index (which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge). Like the CPI a couple of weeks ago, expectations are going to be tough to beat, with the Street looking for a 2.5% annual increase in the headline number and a 2.6% annual increase in the core.
The first look at Q4 GDP will be released on Friday.
Existing home sales fell 4.9% in January, according to the NAR. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose about 2%. “Mortgage rates have refused to budge for several months despite multiple rounds of short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “When combined with elevated home prices, housing affordability remains a major challenge.”
“More housing supply allows strongly qualified buyers to enter the market,” Yun added. “But for many consumers, both increased inventory and lower mortgage rates are necessary for them to purchase a different home or become first-time homeowners.”
The median home price rose 4.8% YOY to $396,900. Days on market increased to 41 days. The first time homebuyer remains priced out, with their share falling to 28%. The inventory of for-sale homes was 1.1 million, or about 3.5 months worth of supply.
Consumer confidence fell in February, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. The decline was across the board, and particularly evident in buying conditions for durable goods. As expected, there was a partisan angle to the survey, with Republicans registering no change in expectations for the long-run economy and Democrats becoming more pessimistic.
Year-ahead inflationary expectations jumped markedly, rising from 3.3% to 4.3%. This is the highest reading since November 2023. Long-run inflationary expectations increased as well.
Mortgage delinquencies increased in February, according to the ICE Mortgage Monitor. Conforming delinquencies remain low, however we are seeing an uptick in FHA and VA DQs.
Are you a mortgage originator with a bookkeeper, but no financial analyst? Are you doing without an annual budget because you don’t have the time / resources to develop one? Are you considering an acquisition, and want an in-depth analysis of the potential synergies and impact on the bottom line? Perhaps you have some projects that need to be done, but you can’t justify a full-time hire.
I am a consultant who has extensive experience in capital markets, secondary marketing, FP&A, budgeting, and servicing. If you think you might have a need, let’s set up a discovery call.
Please reach out to brent@thedailytearsheet.com
