Vital Statistics:
Stocks are higher this morning despite the fact that new tariffs are kicking in. Bonds and MBS are down small.
The Bank of England cut rates this morning, which should help global yields going forward
Yesterday’s 10 year auction was a bit weak, with the bid-to-cover ratio coming in at 2.35. The average lately has been around 2.58, which means demand was lagging.
Home prices 3.1% on an annual basis according to the Clear Capital Home Data Index. National home prices rose 1.7% on a quarterly basis and 3.1% annually. The Northeast and the Midwest continue to outperform, while the previously hot markets in Florida and the Sunbelt struggle.
The biggest gainers were in the hip to be square category, with MSAs like Rochester NY, and Birmingham AL.
Asking rents were basically flat in June, according to Apartment List National Rent report. National rent prices fell 0.8% YOY to $1,402. This is about 2.8% below the August 2022 peak.
The vacancy rate for multifamily properties hit a record 7.1% for the series which goes back to 2017. Surprisingly, the Bay Area is seeing the biggest rent growth, while Sunbelt MSAs like Austin and Phoenix are falling as new supply hits the market.
“All of our key indicators are pointing toward ongoing sluggishness in the multifamily rental market – rent growth is slipping and the vacancy rate is at an all-time high. A return to tighter market conditions should still be on the horizon, but the outlook has been complicated by macroeconomic whiplash being caused by tariffs and other policies being pursued by the Trump administration. That uncertainty appears to have modestly dampened demand during this moving season. And although the supply wave is receding, the number of units that hit the market in the first half of this year was still above the long-run average. With construction expected to slow further in the second half of this year and into 2026, conditions are likely to shift.”
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