Stocks are higher this morning as oil continues to fall. Bonds and MBS are up.
Home prices rose 0.7% YOY in March according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. More than half of the US major metros reported declines. The hip to be square trade continues with Chicago as the lead sled dog and Western MSAs like Seattle and Denver bringing up the rear. “Monthly price movements offered a seasonal spring lift but little underlying momentum. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index climbed 0.7% from February, and even double-digit composite markets like the 10-City and 20-City posted strong March gains (1.2% and 1.0% NSA, respectively). Yet after seasonal adjustment, the National and 20-City indices both slipped 0.2%, and the 10-City ticked down 0.03%, confirming that demand remains soft as we head into spring. The latest six months saw only a negligible 0.3% rise in national home prices, barely keeping pace with the 0.3% in the prior half-year – a sign of a housing market nearly at a standstill.
“Mortgage rates, meanwhile, have resumed climbing. The 30-year fixed rate dipped below 6% in late February but rebounded to roughly 6.4% by the end of March, re-intensifying the affordability squeeze on buyers and potentially further damping home sales and price growth,” Godec concluded.
Separately, the FHFA House Price Index rose 0.1% MOM and 1.7%. The FHFA index only looks at conforming loans, so this is an indication of better appreciation at the lower price points.
Mortgage applications fell 8.5% last week as purchases fell 0.4% and refis fell 18%. There were large declines in applications across loan types – conventional refinances were down 14%, along with an 18% decrease for FHA applications and a 34% decrease for VA applications. Overall, refinance applications accounted for 38% of applications, the lowest share since June 2025.”
Added Kan, “Purchase applications were slightly lower across all loan types but still ran at a stronger pace than last year’s pace. The average loan size for a purchase application reached another survey high at $473,600, as borrowers with smaller loan sizes were less active given the higher rate environment and its negative impact on their purchasing power.”
Consumer confidence worked its way lower in May according to the Conference Board. “Consumer confidence edged downward in May as the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensified,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and the current labor market were moderately less positive compared to last month. This was somewhat offset by modest improvements in consumers’ expectations for business conditions and the labor market six months from now. Meanwhile, income expectations eased in May, as those anticipating less income rose.”
Inflation expectations declined
