Morning Report: Forbearance requests fall

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3264 20.1
Oil (WTI) 42.34 1.22
10 year government bond yield 0.61%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.02%

 

Stocks are up this morning on stimulus talks in Europe and positive news on a COVID vaccine. Bonds and MBS are up.

 

Happy half century birthday to Freddie Mac. “As our company celebrates 50 years, we stand on the threshold of a new stage in our evolution as an organization, leading an industry poised for fundamental transformation and playing a critical, stabilizing role during a time of extreme volatility for our country,” said David Brickman, CEO of Freddie Mac.

 

Economic growth accelerated in June, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Led by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +4.11 in June from +3.50 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in June, and two of the four categories increased from May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –3.49 in June from –6.36 in May.

 

FHFA has maintained the same goals for Fannie and Fred in the upcoming year. 24% of mortgages should be from low income borrowers, while 14% of mortgages have to come from low income areas.

 

Forbearance rates fell to a 2 month low, according to the MBA. 7.8% of mortgages are in forbearance. By source, Fannie and Freddie forbearance numbers are 5.6%, government are 10.3% and non-government guaranteed mortgages were 10.4%. This was the biggest drop in forbearances since they began tracking them.

Morning Report: Bank earnings coming in

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3287 -2.25
Oil (WTI) 58.63 0.54
10 year government bond yield 1.84%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.88%

 

Stocks are flattish as we await the China trade deal and earnings season begins in earnest. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

Inflation remains under control, and more or less where the Fed would like it. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% MOM and 2.3% YOY. Ex-food and energy it rose 0.1% MOM and 2.3% YOY.

 

JP Morgan reported better than expected earnings this morning driven by higher bond trading revenue. Origination volume increased to $33 billion, up 3% on a sequential basis, which is impressive given the seasonality of the mortgage business. On a YOY basis, it almost doubled. Full year origination volume increased 32% to $105 billion. Servicing took a bite however as prepayment speeds increased. Overall, home lending revenue was down 5% compared to the 4th quarter a year ago as negative servicing valuations offset increased production income. JPM stock is up about a buck pre-open.

 

Wells reported earnings that missed expectations driven largely by litigation expenses. Mortgage origination volume rose sequentially to $60 billion in the quarter, and servicing was revalued upward from the 3rd quarter. Production income was flat at 1.21%. The stock is down about 3.5% pre-open.

 

Small business optimism dipped a touch in December, according to the NFIB. “Owners are aggressively moving forward with their business plans, proving that when they’re given relief from the government, they put their money where their mouth is, and they invest, hire, and increase wages,“ said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. “What really matters to small business owners are issues directly impacting their bottom lines. Currently, their biggest problem is finding qualified labor, surpassing taxes or regulations.” A net 29% of small businesses reported increasing compensation, an a net 24% plan on increasing comp in the next two months. That said, any sort of profit pressures are coming from weak sales, not increased costs.

 

Delinquenices hit a 20 year low in October, according to CoreLogic. 30 day DQs fell from 4.1% to 3.7% YOY. The foreclosure rate fell from 0.5% to 0.4%. Separately, CoreLogic reported home prices grew 3.3% in October. “Home price growth builds homeowner equity and reduces the likelihood of a loan entering foreclosure,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist with CoreLogic. “The national CoreLogic Home Price Index recorded a 3.3% annual rise in values through October 2019, and price growth was the primary driver of the $5,300 average gain in equity reported in the latest CoreLogic Home Equity Report.”