|10 Year Government Bond Yield||2.84%|
|30 Year fixed rate mortgage||4.53%|
Markets are flat as bank earnings come in. Bonds and MBS are up small. Slow news day.
The US government held a reasonably strong auction yesterday, where primary dealers took down their smallest positions ever. Meanwhile, speculative shorts in Treasuries (one of the biggest trades on the Street) are struggling as rates stay stubbornly low. Some continue to warn that the flattening yield curve is really telling us that a recession is around the corner.
The prepared remarks for Jerome Powell’s semiannual report to Congress should be out today. Probably won’t be market-moving, but you never know.
Import prices fell 0.4% in June as petroleum and food prices fell. For the year, they are up 4.3% however.
Consumer sentiment fell according to the University of Michigan / Reuters survey. The current conditions index drove the fall, which is usually a function of gas prices. Trade fears also weighed on sentiment.
Wells Fargo reported earnings this morning. Earnings were down due to a tax charge. Stripping out the tax charge, they were flat. They had a tough quarter for mortgages like everyone else. Origination for the quarter was $50 billion, which is up seasonally from Q1, but down 11% YOY. The current pipeline of $24 billion is down 26% YOY. Margins were 77 basis points, which is down 17 from the prior quarter and down 47 bps from a year ago. The stock is down 3% pre-open.
JP Morgan had a similar story to Wells. They originated $23.7 billion in mortgages during Q2, which was higher seasonally and down about 10% from a year ago. Mortgage banking revenue (which includes servicing) was down 6% YOY. Margin compression again was the story, especially in correspondent lending. They marked up the MSR book. JPM is flat pre-open.
A bunch of other banks reported this morning and the whole sector is getting hit, with the XLF down about a percent and a half.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made positive comments about the economy, although he is concerned about trade and the effects of a long trade war with China. He is concerned about rising trade tensions, although he notes that Trump’s goal is to get others to lower their tariffs. If he succeeds in that, then the trade tension would be a good thing, not a bad thing. It is important to remember that China’s biggest weapon against the US is not imposing tariffs on US goods – it is ignoring US intellectual property laws. Those sorts of things will not really show up in the balance of trade numbers, but will have huge effects on IP firms, particularly media and software.