Morning Report: Wages increasing especially at the low end

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3242 4.25
Oil (WTI) 62.17 0.44
10 year government bond yield 1.94%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.94%

 

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

 

The upcoming week should be relatively quiet with New Year’s right in the middle of the week. Tomorrow, the bond market will close at 2:00 pm as well. The jobs report looks like it will be postponed until next week as well.

 

The USMCA (aka NAFTA 2.0) should help ease the housing shortage in the US by allowing more imports of building materials at cheaper prices. “The U.S. residential construction and remodeling industries rely on tens of billions of dollars in building materials sourced from Mexico and Canada annually because America cannot produce enough steel, aluminum and other materials and equipment to meet the needs of the domestic housing industry,” NAHB said in a statement. FWIW, I don’t know that building materials are the issue – lumber prices are down 33% from the peak in 2018 – but I guess every little bit helps. The biggest constraint is labor and land. And those are more about immigration policy and zoning.

 

lumber

 

Wages are increasing, which reflects a tighter labor market. According to the NY Fed, the average wage rose to a record high of $69,181 in November. Further, wages are rising 4.5% for the bottom 25% and only rising 2.9% for the top 25%. So, definitely good news for the first time homebuyer, who is likely younger and lower paid.

 

 

Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical

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