Morning Report: Wages increasing especially at the low end

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3242 4.25
Oil (WTI) 62.17 0.44
10 year government bond yield 1.94%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.94%

 

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

 

The upcoming week should be relatively quiet with New Year’s right in the middle of the week. Tomorrow, the bond market will close at 2:00 pm as well. The jobs report looks like it will be postponed until next week as well.

 

The USMCA (aka NAFTA 2.0) should help ease the housing shortage in the US by allowing more imports of building materials at cheaper prices. “The U.S. residential construction and remodeling industries rely on tens of billions of dollars in building materials sourced from Mexico and Canada annually because America cannot produce enough steel, aluminum and other materials and equipment to meet the needs of the domestic housing industry,” NAHB said in a statement. FWIW, I don’t know that building materials are the issue – lumber prices are down 33% from the peak in 2018 – but I guess every little bit helps. The biggest constraint is labor and land. And those are more about immigration policy and zoning.

 

lumber

 

Wages are increasing, which reflects a tighter labor market. According to the NY Fed, the average wage rose to a record high of $69,181 in November. Further, wages are rising 4.5% for the bottom 25% and only rising 2.9% for the top 25%. So, definitely good news for the first time homebuyer, who is likely younger and lower paid.

 

 

Morning Report: Out: NAFTA. In: USMCA.

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2933 14.75
Eurostoxx index 384.63 1.45
Oil (WTI) 73.2 -0.09
10 year government bond yield 3.09%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.71%

 

Stocks are higher this morning after NAFTA was saved over the weekend. Bonds and MBS are down small.

 

Canada and the US reached an agreement late last night to keep Canada in NAFTA (which will be renamed). The biggest change in NAFTA makes it harder for automakers to build in Mexico, where labor is cheaper. Canada got to keep a trade dispute mechanism. The treaty will go to Congress for approval. “It is a great deal for all three countries, solves the many deficiencies and mistakes in NAFTA, greatly opens markets to our Farmers and Manufacturers, reduce Trade Barriers to the U.S. and will bring all three Great Nations closer together in competition with the rest of the world,” wrote Trump last night. There is a press conference scheduled for 11:00 am.

 

Manufacturing continues to impress, with the ISM survey coming in at 59.8. New orders decelerated, while production and employment accelerated. Tariffs continue to weigh on manufacturers, and the clarity of having NAFTA (sorry USMCA) off the table should help somewhat, but we still are nowhere near any sort of resolution with China. Still, the market is strong, and labor issues remain. Wages are going to increase. They have to.

 

The CFPB’s head of fair lending is under fire for blog posts in the past, where hate crimes were discussed. The blog post in question is a mock legal debate – hardly an inflammatory screed – and is largely a thought crime for entertaining the notion that hate crimes are often hoaxes. Still, some of the employees at the CFPB are having issues with it. Ultimately, most of the CFPB staffers are holdovers from the Cordray “push the envelope” days, and they are chafing under the new approach of the CFPB – “enforce the law as written and then stop.”

 

This should be a big week ahead with the jobs report on Friday and a lot of Fed-speak. The snapback rally in the 10 year appears to be over, and the new NAFTA agreement definitely points to more expensive cars in the future. That could be offset by lower ag prices, but we will see. Don’t know how lumber will be affected either, but building materials are big inputs to inflation, especially housing inflation.

 

Mortgage rates increased by 3 basis points during September, making this the 10th month in a row where they have increased. This is affecting affordability, and the share of homes selling above their listing price declined. The drop is mainly in the super hot markets on the West Coast, but there is no doubt that home price appreciation is moderating. Either wages have to catch up or home prices are going nowhere for a while. With rates pushing 5%, will we see a slowdown in housing? Probably not – Zillow estimates that 6% is the number to watch.

 

mortgage rate

 

Construction spending increased by a hair in August, increasing 0.1% MOM. On a YOY basis, we are still up 6.5%. Residential construction fell, and was up only 4.1% YOY. Where was the activity? Office and commercial.

 

The Atlanta Fed cut their third quarter growth rate estimate to 3.6% from 3.8%. Still think consumption could surprise to the upside for the year, but want to hear what the retailers report for back to school.