Employment Cost Index – The Daily Tearsheet

Morning Report: Strong jobs report

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P futures	2701	-2.75
Eurostoxx index	358.09	-0.56
Oil (WTI)	53.82	0.02
10 year government bond yield		2.65%
30 year fixed rate mortgage		4.35%

Stocks are flattish after the jobs report. Bonds and MBS are up.

Jobs report data dump:

Nonfarm payrolls up 304,000
Labor force participation rate 63.2%
Unemployment rate 4%
Average hourly earnings up 3.2% YOY
Employment-population ratio 60.7%

Overall, an exceptionally strong report. The uptick in payrolls was almost double the market expectations, and the government shutdown had no appreciable effect (Furloughed employees were counted as “employed” by the survey. The uptick in wages probably knocked bonds down a touch, but we have been seeing real wage gains in the employment situation report and the employment cost index. Sad trombone for partisans and the business press rooting for a shutdown-depressed report.

The unemployment rate has been rising, but that is actually good news as it means more and more of the long-term unemployed are being drawn back into the labor force. The labor force participation rate is a bit of a nebulous number because people who have been unemployed for a long time may not count as unemployed. The employment-population ratio is a much better measure, although you have to deal with demographic noise. The employment-population ratio rose 0.1% to 60.7%. A year ago it was 60.2%. While that is much higher than the 58.5% we saw at the depths of the Great Recession, it is still lower than the 62% – 63% pre-crisis level. Retiring baby boomers are being replaced by Millennials, but there is a lag.

employment population ratio

New home sales rose to a seasonally-adjusted average of 657,000 in November. The new home sales number is extraordinarily volatile – it is up 17% from October, but down 8% from a year ago – but it is somewhat encouraging as we head into the spring selling season, which despite the polar vortex upon us, unofficially starts about now.

Employment compensation costs rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter, as wages and salaries rose 0.6% and benefit costs rose 0.7%. For the prior 12 months, employment compensation costs rose 2.9%, with wages and salaries rising 3.1% and benefit costs rising 2.8%. With core inflation stuck around 2%, we are seeing over 1% real wage growth, which is strong indeed.

Wapo published a story about Trump possibly naming erstwhile R politician Herman Cain to the Fed. Cue the snide jokes: Can’t wait for his 3-3-3 plan: 3% Fed funds rate, 3% interest on excess reserves, 3% of QE portfolio runoff per year. In all seriousness though, he ran the Kansas City Fed from 92-96. So what appears at first to be an applause line in fact might not be. That said, these jobs generally go to academics and he is not one.

Morning Report: Lots of labor data

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P futures	2723	12.25
Eurostoxx index	364.42	2.24
Oil (WTI)	64.81	-0.46
10 year government bond yield		3.16%
30 year fixed rate mortgage		4.89%

Stocks are higher this morning after yesterday’s end of month window dressing. Bonds and MBS are down again.

The ADP report showed the US economy added 227,000 jobs in October, which is well ahead of the Street estimate for Friday’s BLS report. There was a big (typically seasonal) increase in transportation and retail, although professional / business services was strong as well. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market bounced back strongly last month despite being hit by back-to-back hurricanes. Testimonial to the robust employment picture is the broad-based gains in jobs across industries. The only blemish is the struggles small businesses are having filling open job positions.” Large and medium sized employers (50 employees +) accounted for the lion’s share of new jobs.

ADP jobs report

With added employees comes added employee cost. The Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% QOQ and 2.8% YOY. The wage component of employment costs rose 2.9% while the benefit portion rose 2.4%. The drop in healthcare costs is helping wages as higher healthcare costs of consumed a lot of employee raises. Your cost of healthcare ate your cost of living raise.

Mortgage Applications decreased 2.5% last week as purchases fell 2% and refis fell 4%. Rates held steady. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage held steady over the week, but total applications decreased overall. Purchase applications inched backward from the previous week, as well as compared to one year ago – the first year-over-year decline in purchase activity since August,” said Joel Kan, AVP of economic and industry forecasts. “Purchase applications may have been adversely impacted by the recent uptick in rates and the significant stock market volatility we have seen the past couple of weeks. Additionally, the ARM share of applications increased to its highest level since 2017, but since this is a compositional measure, it was driven by a greater decrease in applications for fixed-term loans relative to the decrease in ARM applications.”

The Challenger and Gray job cut report rose last month, but it is a third-tier employment data point. It focuses on job cut announcements, which may or may not happen.

The homeownership rate rose 64.4% according to the Census Bureau. This was up 0.1% from the second quarter and 0.4% from a year ago. The homeownership rate has been ticking up, although the big jump in homeownership from 1994 to 2005 was partially driven by aggressive social engineering out of Washington and probably was artificially high.

homeownership rate NAD

Morning Report: GDP comes in better than expected

Vital Statistics:

	Last	Change
S&P futures	2673	-1.5
Eurostoxx index	384.63	0.87
Oil (WTI)	67.92	-0.27
10 Year Government Bond Yield		2.97%
30 Year fixed rate mortgage		4.62%

Stocks are flat this morning after GDP came in higher than expected. Bonds and MBS are up small.

The advance estimate of first quarter GDP came in at 2.3%, higher than the Street 2.0% estimate. Consumption rose 1.1%, in line with estimates, and inflation was lower than expected at 2%. In many ways, this was a Goldilocks type report, with decent growth and controlled inflation. The savings rate increased to 3.1%, compared to 2.6% in the fourth quarter. One note of caution: the first quarter has had some quirky measurement issues over the past several years, which has subjected it to subsequent upward revisions. The tax cuts will probably have a similar effect this time around.

Wage inflation is picking up, according to the Employment Cost Index which rose 0.8% for the quarter and is up 2.7% for the year. Wages and salaries increased 0.9% compared to 0.5% in the previous quarter. For the Fed, these two reports this morning are great news. Real wage growth (2.7% increase in wages and salaries less a 2% increase in inflation) with moderate growth and inflation.

Consumer sentiment slipped from March’s 14 year high in April to a still strong 98.8.

The Fed Funds futures are predicting a 93% chance of another 25 basis point hike at the June meeting.

North and South Korea pledged to de-nuclearize the peninsula and declare an official end to the 50 year old Korean War.

Freddie Mac is introducing its 3% down product for first-time homebuyers – HomeOne. With an Affordable Second, the LTV can go as high as 105%. Income and geographic limits are intended to reach a broad audience.

The CFPB has fixed the “black hole” issue in TRID.