|10 Year Government Bond Yield||2.96%|
|30 Year fixed rate mortgage||4.56%|
Stocks are higher this morning after China instituted measures to stimulate the economy. Bonds and MBS are flat.
Bonds sold off hard (yields rose) in response to news out of Japan that their central bank would adjust their interest rate target for the 10 year bond. The Japanese Central bank targets 0% for the yield on their 10 year, and some market participants believe it would be about 30 basis points if it was allowed to float freely. Japanese yields rose the most in 2 years, dragging Euro yields and US yields with them. Remember this whenever you read these articles in the press about the slope of the yield curve and the forecast for a recession. The yield curve is so manipulated by central banks globally that it is hard to draw any conclusions from prices.
Manufacturing activity increased in July, according the Markit Flash PMI, but we are seeing price pressures – in fact pricing pressures were the highest on record (going back to 2009). Input prices (fuel, staff and metals) drove the increase, although the root cause is mainly tariff-driven. Meanwhile, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey was flat but solidly expansionary.
Foreclosure starts fell to 43,500 in June, which is the lowest number in 17 years. Active foreclosures fell below 300,000 for the first time in 12 years. Total delinquencies edged up, but are down on a YOY basis. The foreclosure crisis is about wrapped up, although the judicial states (especially NY and NJ) still have inventory to clear.
House prices rose 0.2% MOM and 6.4% YOY according to the FHFA House Price Index. Prices are still rising at an unsustainable pace in the West and Mountain regions, although the West Coast is decelerating. The Middle Atlantic (which includes NY and NJ) is bringing up the rear.
The West and the South lead the country in job gains and increases in construction employment. The states where construction employment is increasing the fastest? AZ and MI. AZ fits in with the rest of its neighbors, while MI stands out compared to neighbors like OH and IN. There are a few states decreasing construction employment – OK, SC, and NJ.