Morning Report: Disappointing payroll number

Vital Statistics:

Stocks are higher this morning after yesterday’s rally continued overnight. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday that the central bank was monitoring the trade tensions between China and the US and would “act appropriately” to maintain the economic expansion. Investors took this to mean that the Fed would probably cut rates this year. The stock market had its best day in 5 months, and bonds sold off a touch, although lower rates should be supported by low overseas yields and the prospect of a rate cut.

Donald Trump announced that he would institute tariffs on Mexican goods if the country didn’t do more to curb illegal immigration into the US. This new front in the trade war was the catalyst to push the 10 year below 2.1%. Yesterday, Republican senators warned that there was not support for tariffs in the Senate.

Mortgage Applications increased 1.5% last week as purchases fell 2% and refis increased 6%. “Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level since the first week of 2018, driven by increasing concerns regarding the ongoing trade tensions with China and Mexico,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Some borrowers, particularly those with larger loans, jumped on the opportunity to refinance, bringing the index and average refinance loan size to their highest levels since early April. Additionally, refinances for FHA and VA loans jumped by 11 percent.”

Payrolls only increased by 27k last month according to the ADP Employment Report. Small firms reduced payrolls by 52,000 last month, and it looks like the majority of that was in construction. Manufacturing fell by 3,000 which might be tariff related. The service sector increased employment by 71,000 and large employers increased by 68,000. Street expectations are for a 185,000 increase in payrolls for Friday’s jobs report. Now that the Fed is out of the way, the wage growth number is no longer the focus.

Author: Brent Nyitray

In the physical sciences, knowledge is cumulative. In the financial markets, it is cyclical View all posts by Brent Nyitray