|10 year government bond yield
|30 year fixed rate mortgage
Stocks are lower after the US imposed further tariffs on Chinese goods. Bonds and MBS are flat.
As promised, the US increased tariffs on about $200 billion of Chinese goods as trade talks continue. The Chinese vowed to retaliate, and that sent the Chinese stock market up sharply overnight. Both parties say they want to strike some sort of deal and it is possible this could get walked back.
Inflation at the consumer level rose 0.3% MOM and 2.0% YOY, right in line with the Fed’s target. Ex-food and energy, they were up 0.2% / 2.1%. Although the Fed doesn’t really pay too much attention to CPI (they prefer PCE), it keeps the Fed at bay, probably through the 2020 election.
Uber priced its IPO at $45 a share last night, towards the bottom of the range. The bankers claim that was due to market conditions, but the IPO market has been lousy in general, partly because all of the value is extracted in the funding rounds prior to the IPO, which means they are coming to the market priced for perfection. The lousy performance of Lyft’s IPO didn’t help matters either. A labor standoff with its drivers isn’t helping either.
Neel Kashkari discusses why we aren’t seeing inflation even at 3.6% unemployment. His main point is that the unemployment rate uses a measure of the labor force that is probably understated. You have to be actively looking for a job to be considered part of the labor force, and people who have been unemployed for over 6 months no longer count. The tell, therefore is wage growth. Given productivity has been running at around 1.5% and inflation is running around 2%, then non-inflationary wage growth should be around 3.5%. Since we are closer to 3%, there is still slack in the labor market. He also cited two interesting stats: First, of the people that got jobs in April, 70% said they weren’t looking for work in March. That suggests that many of these workers were on disability, which is basically long-term unemployment. The fact that they are coming back is a good sign. Second, the fall in the labor force participation rate offsets the unemployment effect. To get an apples-to-apples comparison of today’s job market versus the late 90s, 2.3 million more prime age workers (age 25-54) would need to have jobs. This also explains why wage growth has been running below what it should.
Usury laws are back. Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez want to cap credit card interest rates at 15%. I guess the hope is that credit card companies will say “yes, we were overcharging you and we’ll still make money at 15%, so here you go.” In reality, all they will do is stop issuing cards to people with FICOs below a certain level. Credit card debt is unsecured, which means that the lender generally gets little to nothing if the borrower defaults. So, they assign a probability of default and multiply the interest by 1 minus the default rate and decide whether that return is acceptable compared to other debt instruments. By the way, these ideas aren’t new. Much of this had been tried and rejected over the past 100 years, but i guess in politics and finance, knowledge is cyclical, versus cumulative as it is in the sciences.
Mortgage credit standards loosened last month as more lenders embraced non-QM lending. The MBA’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index increased for everything except government loans, which fell. The drop in government is probably due to VA loans, which are under scrutiny right now. By the way, although the chart below is close to highs, it doesn’t go back to the bubble years. Compared to then, credit is still much, much tighter. The current index of 190 or so is still a fraction of the 900 level which characterized the days of “pick a pay” loans.